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Composite detail
Three-month average unemployment rate minus its prior 12-month low.
0.20
As of 2026-04-01
Caution
Calculated as the three-month moving average of the unemployment rate less the lowest value of that average over the prior 12 months.
Source: calculated by Labor Pulse from official input series shown below. The composite is an index-style summary, not a direct government-published statistic.
How to read this metric
Read this as an early warning light for recession risk. A small positive value means unemployment has moved up from its recent low. Values near the signal range deserve attention because they suggest the labor market may be weakening in a broad way. One month alone should not drive the conclusion. Look for whether the line keeps rising and whether other stress measures are moving in the same direction.
Composite history
Source: calculated by Labor Pulse from UNRATE
These are the source indicators used to calculate the composite. Open each one to see its original publisher, latest observation, and plain-English explanation.